COVID-19 Italy-update as of 28.10.2020
All the processed data collected from various sources are published at the same time on the National Civil Protection Department's interactive:
- Dashboard map
- Daily data sheet (Covid-19 Cases update) with the aggregated number of daily cases from the regions/autonomous provinces;
- Epidemiological-surveillance infographic (ISS Epidemiological Infographic) produced by the Higher Health Institute (ISS), with individual case data from positive tests diagnosed by the regions/autonomous provinces;
Weekly monitoring report Phase 2
For the management of Phase 2, a specific monitoring system on epidemiological data and response capacity of regional health services has been activated, introduced with the decree of the Ministry of Health of April 30, 2020. The monitoring is developed by a “control booth” consisting of the Ministry of Health, the Higher Institute of Health and the Regions.
Key points Covid-19 weekly monitoring, report from October 12-18, 2020
- An analysis of the data for the period 12-18 October 2020 is reported. Due to the time between exposure to the pathogen and the development of symptoms, and between these and the diagnosis and subsequent notification, many of the cases reported this week are likely to have contracted the infection between the end of September and the beginning of October. Some of the cases identified by screening, however, may have contracted the infection in earlier periods.
- A strong increase in cases continues to be observed, which brings the cumulative incidence (ISS flow data) in the last 14 days to 146.18 per 100,000 inhabitants (period 5/10-18/10) (vs. 75 per 100,000 inhabitants in the period 28/9-11/10). In the same period, the number of symptomatic cases went from 15,189 (period 28/9-11/10) to 27,114 (period 5/10-18/10).
- The increase in cases is widespread throughout the country, with all Regions/PPAA reporting an increase in the number of cases diagnosed compared to the previous week (MdS flow). This week, only one in four cases was detected through contact tracing activities, while 31.7% was detected through the appearance of symptoms. The percentage of cases detected through screening activities also dropped (25.8% vs. 31.1% in the previous week). In 16.9% of cases, no diagnostic findings were reported.
- In the period 01 - 14 October 2020, the Rt calculated on symptomatic cases is equal to 1.50 (95%CI: 1.09 -1.75). For details on how to calculate and interpret the Rt reported please refer to further information available on the Higher Institute of Health website. Alert signs of resilience by territorial services are reported in all Regions/PAs.
- The epidemic is worsening rapidly and is generally compatible with a Type 3 scenario, with a higher rate of progression in some Italian Regions: in fact, Rt values above 1.25 are found in most Italian Regions/PAs and there are signs that the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2 is only modestly limited. There is a rapid growth in incidence, an increasingly frequent impossibility to keep track of all transmission chains and a rapid increase in the load on healthcare services, with an increase in hospital bed occupancy rates in both critical and non-critical areas.
- There are a total of 7,625 active outbreaks, of which 1,286 new, so even though the number of active outbreaks is increasing, for the first time in eleven weeks the number of new outbreaks is decreasing (in the previous week of monitoring, 4,913 active outbreaks were reported, of which 1,749 new). This decrease is probably due to the sharp increase in cases for which the territorial services could not identify an epidemiological link: 23,018 cases not associated with known transmission chains were reported (compared to 9,291 last week), which corresponds to 43.5% of the total number of cases reported this week. Outbreaks were reported in almost all provinces (106/107). Most of these outbreaks continue to occur at home (81.7%), which is currently a context of amplification of viral circulation and not the real engine of the epidemic.
- This week there has been an increase in the number of outbreaks where transmission could have taken place in schools, even though intra-school transmission still appears to be limited (3.5% of all new outbreaks reported). However, extra-curricular and peri-school activities could be a trigger for transmission chains if the designed prevention measures are not respected.
- This week, at national level, there has been an important increase in the number of hospitalised people (7,131 vs 4,519 in the medical area, 750 vs 420 in intensive care on 18/10 and 11/10, respectively) and, consequently, there has been an increase in the occupancy rates of hospitalisations in the medical area and in intensive care, with some Regions/PPAA above 10% in both areas. If the epidemiological trend maintains the current pace, there is a high probability that many Regions/PPAA will reach critical employment thresholds in a truly short time.
The ISS and ISTAT report of July 16, shows that on May 25, 2020, Covid-19 was the direct cause of death in 89% of deaths of people who tested positive for Sars-CoV-2, while for the remaining 11% the causes of death were cardiovascular disease (4.6%), cancer (2.4%), respiratory system diseases (1%), diabetes (0.6%), dementia and digestive diseases (0.6% and 0.5% respectively).
The latest ISS update shows an average age 80 years in deceased patients and an average of 3.4 pre-existing diseases.
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